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It was only just last year that Yoshinobu Yamamoto left the Nippon Professional Baseball League and became the most coveted free agent in the sport. He was the most hyped Japanese baseball player since Shohei Ohtani, who had made the trek to the MLB six years prior. Notably, Yamamoto signed for 12 years and $325 million as a true free agent. Ohtani was made available via the international posting system and had to settle for a minor-league contract with the Los Angeles Angels.
The latest Japanese superstar is coming to America, and he has elected to follow in Ohtani's footsteps. Per his current team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, Roki Sasaki, will be posted in the coming months. Sasaki became a household name while dominating the 2023 World Baseball Classic at 21. He struck out 11 hitters in just 7 2/3 innings, forming an unstoppable triumvirate of aces with Yamamoto and Ohtani that would pave the way to Japan's third WBC title.
In total, his Nippon Professional Baseball résumé reads like that of a video game stat line: 29-15 record, 2.10 ERA, 505 strikeouts, 88 walks, all in 394 2/3 innings in 64 starts over four seasons. However, because no player is perfect, there are injury concerns with Roki Sasaki, including a torn oblique and lingering right arm soreness that cost him a number of starts in 2024. His career high in innings is 129 1/3 (set back in 2022), and he reached 111.0 this year across 18 starts.
Nevertheless, he’s going to garner the attention of every franchise in the MLB thanks to his combination of dominance on the mound and the cheapness of his salary. What's fascinating about the Marines' decision to post Sasaki now is the financial ramifications of doing so. Because he's not yet 25 years old, the Japanese star can only sign a minor league deal this offseason. Depending on when he's posted, Sasaki will be eligible for a signing bonus between roughly $5-7 million, with smaller market teams having a larger pool of international bonus money available to them.
Had Sasaki and the Marines waited until 2026 to access the posting system, the pitcher could have received a contract in excess of $400 million, with the Marines reaping the rewards of the associated 20% posting fee. Just last year, the Orix Blue Wave were given more than $50 million as part of the Yamamoto signing.
The heavy assumption around the game right now is that Sasaki will join Ohtani and Yamamoto as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Those two combined to sign contracts exceeding $1 billion with L.A. last offseason, and it isn't hard to imagine Sasaki wanting to form the greatest international triumvirate in the sport's long history. He'd also be close to his idol, Yu Darvish, who pitches for the San Diego Padres.
It should be expected that Sasaki will end up in L.A. The West Coast is often favored by Japanese players given its relative proximity to their home nation, and the Dodgers' status as baseball's best team should be appealing to a player who has yet to win a Pacific League pennant with the Marines.
However, if Sasaki is willing to turn his attention towards the East Coast, the Boston Red Sox would make a mighty fine fit. Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow has already said the team knows it “needs to raise the ceiling of the rotation”. Sasaki is literally nothing but pure upside at this moment in time.
The Red Sox were one of the earliest teams to sign Asian-born players, and they are one of just five major league franchises that has employed ten or more Japanese players. Ever since signing Tomokazu Ohka back in 1999, the Red Sox's pipeline of Japanese players is strong: Hideo Nomo, Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, Hirokazu Sawamura, Masataka Yoshida, and Naoyuki Uwasawa.
Yoshida’s 2025 status is up in the air at the moment, though he could be an asset in the pursuit of Sasaki, as they were both on the WBC champion Samurai Japan in 2023. The Red Sox could also hand Sasaki the ball on Opening Day as their ace as opposed to the Dodgers, who will be trotting out Yamamoto and Ohtani atop their rotation for the foreseeable future. If status matters to him, that could prove appealing.
For what it's worth, the Red Sox also have more than $1 million in extra international signing bonus room than the Dodgers do. It might not mean a lot to someone who is already artificially limiting how much he can earn, but Sasaki will be demanding a majority of any team's bonus pool. Having more to spend means that Boston can give Sasaki more and have a little left over to spend on another player.
Also, let’s not forget that Sasaki is still just 23 years old. The team he chooses in this pursuit doesn’t have to be his “forever team”. Ohtani picked the Angels in 2017 at the same age, and then he left for the Dodgers and the allure of $700 million. Sasaki could very well choose a team like the Red Sox where he’ll be the unquestioned star from day one, with the intention of parlaying that reputation into a $500+ million contract down the line when he hits free agency at 29 years old.
Regardless of the how or why, the Red Sox need to go all out in their pursuit of Sasaki this winter. There are other excellent pitchers on the market—Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, and Blake Snell chief among them—but none come with the combination of youth, upside, and budget-friendliness that Sasaki does. The Dodgers may appear inevitable, but someone has to keep them from building the entirety of the Samurai’s rotation in the MLB. Why not the Red Sox?
